THE OSCARS 2019

I think most people would agree that no self-respecting cinephile would look on the Oscars as a guarantee of cinematic excellence. I suppose a rough analogy would be to say they are the cinematic equivalent of pop-art compared to Michaelangelo's painting of the Sistine Chapel but without the level of excellence that the best pop-art can sometimes reach. Most of the time, the year's 'best' films and performances are completely overlooked by the Academy.

Oscar is about quantity rather than quality. They are about how much money a film has made or how many people have seen it and this year is no exception. This year a relative newcomer, Rami Malek, is almost certainly going to win the Oscar for Best Actor and it would take a foolish man or woman to vote against it, (hardly a year goes by without someone winning an Oscar for playing a 'real' person; in this case Malek is playing Freddie Mercury), but in all honesty I think I would pick any one of the four other nominees before I would vote for Malek while in typical Oscar fashion, the best performance by an actor last year, (Rupert Everett playing another real-life figure, Oscar Wilde in "The Happy Prince", wasn't even nominated. Of course, that was probably because very few people actually saw "The Happy Prince" and not, hopefully, because Everett is an openly gay actor.

Indeed, sometimes if your film is 'foreign', in other words not American or British, it may not even get an L.A. screening and will, therefore, be ineligible. This past week I watched two films on Mubi that in a just world might have been contenders, from Japan, a masterpiece called "Hanagatami" and from France a terrific thriller called "Black Tide" in which Sandrine Kiberlain gave what, in my opinion, was the best performance of 2018 by an actress in a supporting role. So what and who will win on Sunday night?

Unlike 'the old days', when one film dominated, the 'smaller' Oscars will be probably be distributed amongst a number of films. With no nomination for "Black Panther" in the Visual Effects category, almost anything could win here. Personally, I'd like to see "Solo; A Star Wars Story" win but I have a feeling this is "Avengers; Infinity Wars" Oscar to lose. "The Favourite" should pick up both the Oscars for Costume Design and Production Design with "Vice" winning for Make-Up. The two Sound awards, (Editing and Mixing), I think will go to different films; "Black Panther" for Editing and "Bohemian Rhapsody" for Mixing with "Vice" winning for Film Editing.

In the Best Song category "Shallow" is a shoo-in but I think Best Original Score is an open book, (though let's just pray that "Mary Poppins Returns" doesn't win here). In a strong year, I think I may put my shilling on Alexander Desplat adding to his Oscar tally with "Isle of Dogs" but would be equally happy if "Blackkklansman" or "If Beale Street Could Talk" were to win. Alfonso Cuaron is virtually guaranteed to win both Best Cinematography and Best Director for "Roma" while "The Favourite" is likely to edge out "Green Book" in the Original Screenplay category. "Blackkklansman" should finally see Spike Lee pick up his first Oscar in the Adapted category. Since I still haven't seen all of the films nominated for Documentary, Animation or Short Film, I will hold fire here.

So onto the acting awards. I am still a little amazed at the praise being heaped on Regina King for her work in "If Beale Street Could Talk", (yes, she's very good but it's not a significant role). I would have gone with Amy Adams, long overdue, but hers too is a small role which fundamentally leaves Stone and Weisz in "The Favourite". However, I think their joint nominations could split the vote so I will go with 'the favorite', namely King.

Richard E Grant would be a welcome winner for Best Supporting Actor but surely this is Mahershala Ali's Oscar to lose, (his second in three years). I've already said Malek is on a roll for his performance in "Bohemian Rhapsody", overtaking early favorite Christian Bale which brings me to Best Actress. In any other year, Olivia Coleman would be the odds-on favorite to win for "The Favourite" and if she does I won't complain but surely this is Glenn Close's year. A seven-time nominee, Close was never better than in "The Wife" so she should have both the sentimental vote as well as a vote for giving what I believe to be unquestionably the year's best performance.

 

And now, finally, to the Best Picture. "Roma" is still the favorite and should have no problem in winning in the Foreign Language category, (despite strong opposition from "Cold War"), but in over 90 years no Non-English language film has ever won Best Picture. Could this be the year that will change? "The Favourite" is its biggest rival but there are two outsiders. Both "Green Book" and "Bohemian Rhapsody" are crowd-pleasers but also films of quality, (though allegations of sexual impropriety against Bryan Singer will probably sink "Bohemian Rhapsody's" chances). I would be happy with a "Green Book" win but I will stick my neck out and go with "The Favourite". Oscar may not, then, reach the pinnacle of cinema excellence but now and again they do get it right. Will they get it right this year?