I
think most people would agree that no self-respecting cinephile would
look on the Oscars as a guarantee of cinematic excellence. I suppose a
rough analogy would be to say they are the cinematic equivalent of
pop-art compared to Michaelangelo's painting of the Sistine Chapel but
without the level of excellence that the best pop-art can sometimes
reach. Most of the time, the year's 'best' films and performances are
completely overlooked by the Academy.
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Oscar is about quantity
rather than quality. They are about how much money a film has made or
how many people have seen it and this year is no exception. This year a
relative newcomer, Rami Malek, is almost certainly going to win the
Oscar for Best Actor and it would take a foolish man or woman to vote
against it, (hardly a year goes by without someone winning an Oscar for
playing a 'real' person; in this case Malek is playing Freddie Mercury),
but in all honesty I think I would pick any one of the four other
nominees before I would vote for Malek while in typical Oscar fashion,
the best performance by an actor last year, (Rupert Everett playing
another real-life figure, Oscar Wilde in "The Happy Prince", wasn't even
nominated. Of course, that was probably because very few people
actually saw "The Happy Prince" and not, hopefully, because Everett is
an openly gay actor.
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Indeed, sometimes if your film is 'foreign',
in other words not American or British, it may not even get an L.A.
screening and will, therefore, be ineligible. This past week I watched
two films on Mubi that in a just world might have been contenders, from
Japan, a masterpiece called "Hanagatami" and from France a terrific
thriller called "Black Tide" in which Sandrine Kiberlain gave what, in
my opinion, was the best performance of 2018 by an actress in a
supporting role. So what and who will win on Sunday night?
Unlike
'the old days', when one film dominated, the 'smaller' Oscars will be
probably be distributed amongst a number of films. With no nomination
for "Black Panther" in the Visual Effects category, almost anything
could win here. Personally, I'd like to see "Solo; A Star Wars Story"
win but I have a feeling this is "Avengers; Infinity Wars" Oscar to
lose. "The Favourite" should pick up both the Oscars for Costume Design
and Production Design with "Vice" winning for Make-Up. The two Sound
awards, (Editing and Mixing), I think will go to different films; "Black
Panther" for Editing and "Bohemian Rhapsody" for Mixing with "Vice"
winning for Film Editing.
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In the Best Song category "Shallow" is a
shoo-in but I think Best Original Score is an open book, (though let's
just pray that "Mary Poppins Returns" doesn't win here). In a strong
year, I think I may put my shilling on Alexander Desplat adding to his
Oscar tally with "Isle of Dogs" but would be equally happy if
"Blackkklansman" or "If Beale Street Could Talk" were to win. Alfonso
Cuaron is virtually guaranteed to win both Best Cinematography and Best
Director for "Roma" while "The Favourite" is likely to edge out "Green
Book" in the Original Screenplay category. "Blackkklansman" should
finally see Spike Lee pick up his first Oscar in the Adapted category.
Since I still haven't seen all of the films nominated for Documentary,
Animation or Short Film, I will hold fire here.
So onto the
acting awards. I am still a little amazed at the praise being heaped on
Regina King for her work in "If Beale Street Could Talk", (yes, she's
very good but it's not a significant role). I would have gone with Amy
Adams, long overdue, but hers too is a small role which fundamentally
leaves Stone and Weisz in "The Favourite". However, I think their joint
nominations could split the vote so I will go with 'the favorite',
namely King.
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Richard E Grant would be a welcome winner for Best
Supporting Actor but surely this is Mahershala Ali's Oscar to lose, (his
second in three years). I've already said Malek is on a roll for his
performance in "Bohemian Rhapsody", overtaking early favorite Christian
Bale which brings me to Best Actress. In any other year, Olivia Coleman
would be the odds-on favorite to win for "The Favourite" and if she does
I won't complain but surely this is Glenn Close's year. A seven-time
nominee, Close was never better than in "The Wife" so she should have
both the sentimental vote as well as a vote for giving what I believe to
be unquestionably the year's best performance.
And now, finally,
to the Best Picture. "Roma" is still the favorite and should have no
problem in winning in the Foreign Language category, (despite strong
opposition from "Cold War"), but in over 90 years no Non-English
language film has ever won Best Picture. Could this be the year that
will change? "The Favourite" is its biggest rival but there are two
outsiders. Both "Green Book" and "Bohemian Rhapsody" are crowd-pleasers
but also films of quality, (though allegations of sexual impropriety
against Bryan Singer will probably sink "Bohemian Rhapsody's" chances). I
would be happy with a "Green Book" win but I will stick my neck out and
go with "The Favourite". Oscar may not, then, reach the pinnacle of
cinema excellence but now and again they do get it right. Will they get
it right this year?